This isn’t a rumor or an isolated news story — it’s a documented, accelerating trend, and the data behind it explains a lot about what you’re likely to see in your own mailbox this fall.
Key Takeaways
- Forced disenrollment has jumped from roughly 1% a year (2018–2024) to 6.9% in 2025, and is projected to hit 10% in 2026 — nearly 2.9 million Americans, according to Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
- Humana is exiting markets for the second year in a row, affecting 600,000 members for 2027, even after reporting $1.9 billion in profit in the first half of 2026.
- UnitedHealthcare has dropped roughly 13% of its plans across 18 states, per broker commentary reported by Axios.
- This is happening despite CMS actually increasing 2027 payment rates by 2.48% ($13 billion industry-wide) — insurers say it’s still not enough to offset rising medical costs.
- Two carriers control nearly half of all national MA enrollment, which is part of why plan exits hit some counties much harder than others.
- Vermont, Wyoming, New Hampshire, Idaho, and South Dakota have seen the steepest declines, as carriers pull out of less-populated markets entirely.
- A lesser-known 2027 rule allows insurers to cap new enrollment mid-year in specific counties — waiting too long during AEP could mean a strong local plan is already closed to you.
- Formal plan exits aren’t the only way enrollment gets controlled. Non-commissionable plans and quiet provider-network trims are two additional, less visible tactics working alongside outright exits this year.
- There’s a documented alternative to cutting benefits: research shows carriers that invest in helping members understand and use their coverage see meaningfully better satisfaction — and that’s a large part of what a good independent agent actually provides.
The Scale of It: This Is Accelerating, Not Leveling Off

For years, being forced off a Medicare Advantage plan because your insurer exited your market was rare — averaging around 1% of enrollees annually between 2018 and 2024. That changed sharply in 2025, when the rate jumped to 6.9%. It’s projected to hit 10% in 2026 — meaning roughly 1 in 10 Medicare Advantage enrollees nationwide, or about 2.9 million people, are losing their current plan.
The impact isn’t evenly spread. In 12 states, more than 1 in 5 policyholders are affected. Vermont is the most extreme example: 92% of that state’s Medicare Advantage policyholders are being forced to find a new plan.
Paul’s Honest Take: When a number goes from 1% to 10% in the span of a couple of years, that’s not statistical noise — that’s a structural shift in how this entire market operates. If you haven’t gotten a notice yet, that doesn’t mean you’re in the clear for next year either.
Who’s Actually Cutting, and By How Much
| Carrier | 2027 Action | Members Affected |
|---|---|---|
| Humana | Exiting select markets — second consecutive year | ~600,000 |
| UnitedHealthcare | Dropped ~13% of plans across 18 states | Not fully disclosed |
| Clear Spring Health | Shut down Medicare Advantage operations entirely (effective June 1, 2026) | Served CO, GA, IL |
| Presbyterian Health Plan | Exiting most markets | ~30,000 |
| Molina Healthcare | Dropping standard individual Medicare Advantage nationwide, pivoting to dual-eligible (Medicaid/Medicare) plans | Not fully disclosed |
The States Getting Hit Hardest
This isn’t spread evenly across the map. Recent cycles have hit the Northeast and rural West especially hard, as carriers exit less-populated markets where the numbers no longer work for them: Vermont (92% of enrollees losing their specific plan), Wyoming, New Hampshire, Idaho, and South Dakota have all seen historic Medicare Advantage declines as carriers pulled out entirely.
Why geography matters so much: Medicare Advantage depends heavily on local hospital and physician networks, so a plan’s survival is tied directly to the economics of a specific county, not just a carrier’s national strategy. Insurers are increasingly using detailed utilization data to find what amounts to a “lower tail” — individual counties with high medical costs and comparatively low federal reimbursement — and cutting exactly those plans, even when a neighboring county’s version of the same plan survives untouched. Rural areas get hit hardest because they typically had fewer competing options to begin with.
⚠️ A lesser-known 2027 change worth knowing: Regulators are allowing some insurers to cap new enrollment mid-year in specific counties for 2027 — meaning if you wait too long to switch plans, you could find a strong local plan simply closed to new members before December 7 even arrives. This is a real reason not to procrastinate on comparing options once AEP opens.
This is on top of what’s happening to plans that aren’t being discontinued outright. According to industry analyst commentary reported by Axios, common cost-cutting strategies for 2027 include:
- Removing “giveback” benefits that currently pay back part of a member’s Part B premium
- Cutting major dental benefits
- Raising copays for specialist visits
- Changing how out-of-pocket drug costs are structured
- Capping new enrollment partway through the sign-up period on some plans
A HealthScape Advisors survey of 35 health plan leaders found that nearly 70% expect their 2027 benefit packages to be less generous than this year’s.
Here’s the Part That Surprises People: Rates Actually Went Up
This is worth sitting with, because it cuts against the obvious assumption. CMS didn’t cut Medicare Advantage payment rates for 2027 — it raised them, by 2.48%, worth about $13 billion industry-wide. That increase came after fierce industry lobbying against an initial, lower proposal that insurers called insufficient.
And yet the cuts are happening anyway. UnitedHealthcare’s CFO called the original rate proposal “profoundly negative.” Executives at Elevance Health have said they may exit geographies entirely if funding doesn’t keep pace with rising medical costs. Humana’s CEO has explicitly tied 2027 benefit decisions to a company-wide goal of a 3% pre-tax margin by 2028.
The honest read: even with a real payment increase, insurers say rising medical costs and tighter federal scrutiny on risk-adjustment payments are squeezing margins faster than reimbursement is growing. Whether that fully justifies the scale of benefit reductions is a genuinely contested point — economists have long argued Medicare Advantage plans have historically been overpaid relative to traditional Medicare, and that generous benefits were partly a function of that overpayment in the first place.
Why Some Areas Get Hit Much Harder Than Others UnitedHealthcare and Humana together represent 46% of Medicare Advantage enrollment in this 2026 market-share comparison, illustrating just how concentrated the Medicare Advantage market has become.
Part of why these exits feel so disruptive comes down to how concentrated this market already is. UnitedHealthcare and Humana together account for 46% of all Medicare Advantage enrollment nationally. In 28% of U.S. counties, those two carriers alone make up at least 75% of local MA enrollment.
That concentration means when either company pulls back, it doesn’t just affect a niche corner of the market — it can meaningfully shrink the total number of real options in a given county, particularly in rural areas that had limited competition to begin with.
Beyond Exits: The Quieter Ways Enrollment Gets Controlled
Formal plan exits and non-renewal notices get the headlines, but they’re not the only lever carriers are pulling right now. There are at least two quieter mechanisms working alongside them, and understanding all three together gives a much more complete picture of what’s actually happening this year:
1. Financial suppression — non-commissionable plans. A growing number of carriers are simply paying independent agents reduced or zero commission on specific plans, without pulling the plan from the market or sending anyone a notice. It’s a way to slow new enrollment quietly, since agents have less incentive to steer new business toward a plan that pays them nothing. We’ve written about how this works in detail here.
2. Structural suppression — dropping provider networks after a plan gets popular. This is a pattern worth knowing about even though it’s harder to document with a headline statistic: if a specific plan attracts high enrollment in a given area, a carrier can trim that plan’s hospital or specialist network the following year — which doesn’t force anyone off the plan directly, but makes it meaningfully less attractive, cooling further enrollment growth without an official exit.
3. Regulatory suppression — the new mid-year enrollment caps. As covered above, some insurers can now formally cap new enrollment mid-year in specific counties for 2027 — an entirely new, sanctioned tool for controlling volume that didn’t exist in prior years.
Paul’s Honest Take: None of these three tactics show up in a press release the way a plan exit does, but together they add up to the same outcome — carriers controlling how many new members they take on, and where. If you only watch for a formal non-renewal letter, you could still end up on a plan that’s quietly become less attractive, or miss a strong local option that closed to new enrollment before you got around to comparing it. This is exactly why I tell people not to wait until the last week of AEP to actually compare their options.
A Different Way to Read This: What Carriers Could Do Instead
Here’s a genuinely underreported angle worth knowing about. Industry research firm Deft Research studied what actually drives how members rate their Medicare Advantage plan overall — the same satisfaction score tied to a carrier’s Star Rating and, in turn, the quality bonus payments CMS awards to 4-star-and-above plans.
Their finding: the two factors with the largest measurable impact on how a member rates their plan aren’t premium or copay levels — they’re how satisfied members are with the carrier’s help understanding their coverage, and help actually using it.
In other words, member education and support isn’t just a nice-to-have — it’s one of the most direct levers a carrier has for improving its Star Rating, which directly affects its bonus payments. Carriers who invest in genuinely helping members navigate their coverage tend to be seen as partners rather than adversaries, and that shows up in the numbers that matter to the carrier’s bottom line too.
Paul’s Honest Take: This is exactly the role an independent agent plays, and it’s a big part of why I stay engaged with clients well past enrollment day. Understanding your plan — what’s in-network, what requires a referral, how your specific formulary tier works — isn’t a minor detail. The research backs up what I’ve seen anecdotally for years: the people who understand their coverage have dramatically fewer bad surprises, and they’re far more satisfied with their plan even when nothing about the plan itself has changed.
What to Actually Do About It
- Watch your mail closely from late September. If your plan is being discontinued, you’ll get a formal notice by October 2 — and it unlocks a special right to buy a Medigap policy without medical underwriting. We covered the full timeline and the single most costly mistake people make here.
- Don’t assume “no notice” means “no changes.” Even continuing plans are trimming dental benefits and raising specialist copays this year — read your Annual Notice of Change closely regardless.
- Check your specific doctors and medications against 2027 plan details once the Plan Finder updates October 1 — don’t assume your current network holds.
- If you’re deciding between a new Medicare Advantage plan and Medigap, understand the trade-offs clearly first. Our full comparison, including the underwriting risk most people don’t know about, is here.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is this happening because Medicare Advantage itself is a bad program? Not necessarily — it reflects a specific financial squeeze on insurers right now, not a fundamental flaw in the coverage model. Many Medicare Advantage plans remain excellent options; this trend is about which specific plans and benefits are financially sustainable for carriers under current reimbursement levels.
If my plan isn’t being discontinued, am I safe from any changes? Not automatically. Plans that continue to exist are also trimming benefits — reduced dental coverage, higher specialist copays, and changes to drug cost structures are all documented trends for 2027, independent of outright market exits.
Why did rates go up but insurers are still cutting benefits? Insurers argue that rising medical costs and increased federal scrutiny on payment accuracy are outpacing the rate increase. Critics argue MA plans have historically been overpaid and are adjusting expectations back toward reality. Both dynamics are contributing to what you’re seeing this year.
Does living in a rural area make me more likely to be affected? Yes, generally. Johns Hopkins researchers found rural counties with lower existing MA penetration are more likely to see disruptive exits, partly because choice was already limited there to begin with.
Is it true that plans can stop accepting new members before AEP even ends? Yes, for 2027, some insurers have been given the ability to cap new enrollment mid-year in specific counties. This is a genuine reason to compare plans and act early in the Annual Enrollment Period rather than waiting until early December, since a plan that looks available in mid-October isn’t guaranteed to still be open by early December.
My plan wasn’t discontinued, so why does it feel like it’s gotten worse? Plan exits and non-renewal notices aren’t the only way carriers manage enrollment. Some plans quietly reduce their provider network or stop paying agent commissions on specific plans to slow enrollment growth without a formal exit. If your plan feels less attractive than last year even though you never got a notice, this is often why — worth comparing it against current alternatives during AEP regardless.
What can I actually do if my plan is one of the ones cutting benefits? Compare your options carefully during this year’s Annual Enrollment Period (October 15 – December 7) rather than assuming your current plan is still your best fit. A licensed, independent agent can walk through real alternatives in your specific area at no cost to you.
The Bottom Line
This year’s Medicare Advantage disruption isn’t a fluke or a single company’s decision — it’s a documented, accelerating, industry-wide shift, and the data shows it’s likely to keep affecting more people, not fewer, in the near term. Understanding why it’s happening doesn’t make the disruption disappear, but it does mean you’re making an informed decision rather than reacting to a confusing letter in isolation.
If your plan is changing, or you just want a second opinion on whether your current coverage still makes sense given everything shifting in the market this year, that’s exactly the conversation worth having before December 7.
Call 631-358-5793 or visit paulbinsurance.com to talk through your specific situation.
Paul Barrett, CMIP, is the founder of The Modern Medicare Agency, based in Melville, NY, and has spent 18+ years exclusively helping people navigate Medicare. He’s licensed in 37 states, represents more than 40 carriers, and has personally helped over 5,000 clients choose coverage that actually fits their lives.
Related Reading
- Your Medicare Advantage Plan Is Being Discontinued? Here’s What Happens Next — and the Silver Lining Most People Miss
- Medicare Advantage vs. Medigap: The Honest Breakdown (Including the Risk Nobody Explains)
- Free Help, Real Talk: How I Get Paid
- Medicare’s Negotiated Drug Prices: What the IRA Actually Changed for 2026 and 2027
- Is Medicare Part D Actually Helping Seniors — Or Just Shifting the Cost?
Sources
- Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health — 1 in 10 Medicare Advantage Enrollees Face Forced Disenrollment in 2026
- Axios — Medicare Advantage Plans Appear to Be Cutting Benefits in 2027
- Deft Research — Financial Stability Taking Precedence Over Growth
- KFF — Medicare Advantage in 2026: Enrollment Update and Key Trends
- Fierce Healthcare — Humana Still on Track for 2.5% Medicare Advantage Membership Growth This Year
- Insurance Business Magazine — Humana Exits Affect 600,000 Members
- HealthScape Advisors — Medicare Advantage Enrollment Depicts Industry Crossroads





